Probabilities of conditionals: updating Adams

Abstract The problem of probabilities conditionals is one the long‐standing puzzles in philosophy language. We defend and update Adams' solution to puzzle: probability an epistemic conditional not a proposition, but under supposition. Close inspection how triviality result unfolds concrete scenario does provide counterexamples view that are probabilities: instead, it supports conclusion violate standard theory. This call into question theory per se; rather, calls for more careful understanding its role: propositions; as do express propositions, their subject laws. argue both best understood terms dynamics supposing, modeled restriction operation on space. version suppositionalist allows us connect Thesis widely held restrictor semantics conditionals. address two common objections view: relevant ‘probabilities only name’, giving up propositions puts at disadvantage when comes interpreting compounds. Finally, we some putative can be diagnosed fallacies probabilistic reasoning: they arise from applying laws which invalid them.